McCain Erases Obama Lead!

A new poll (AP-Ipsos) released today shows Senator McCain has cut Obama's 10-point lead and is essentially tied w/ Clinton & Obama. The poll shows that Senator McCain is still enjoying a bounce in the polls since securing the GOP nomination. The poll shows that Clinton & McCain are statistically tied. According to the poll, "About a quarter of Obama supporters say they'll vote for McCain if Clinton is the Democratic nominee. About a third of Clinton supporters say they would vote for McCain if it's Obama." McCain '08!

McCain wins GOP Bloggers Poll in Michigan for the 2nd month in a row!!!

For the second month in a row John McCain has show himself to be the candidate to beat in Michigan.

This victory comes on the heels of new poll numbers that show McCain leading the pack in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Here are the GOP Blogger numbers for Michigan:

McCain 202 (36.1%)
F. Thompson 174 (31.1%)
Romney 45 (8.1%)
Giuliani 43 (7.7%)
Gingrich 35 (6.3%)
(none) 17 (3%)
Hunter 16 (2.9%)
Brownback 11 (2%)
Tancredo 10 (1.8%)
Huckabee 3 (0.5%)
T. Thompson 2 (0.4%)
Pataki 1 (0.2%

McCain continues to lead in IA, NH, and SC

Despite being in the middle of the heated immigration debate (will post on this later this week) that has divided the party, McCain's numbers in the Big 3 remain solid according to the latest ARG poll on May 29. What's even better is that John McCain continues to receive support from independents who are likely Republican primary voters/caucus goers in Iowa (48%), New Hampshire (40%), and South Carolina (41%).

Let's break down the numbers for the top 3 vote-getters in each state (and yes, Fred Thompson is included in each poll).

Iowa: McCain 25%, Giuliani 23%, Romney 16%
New Hampshire: McCain 30%, Romney 23%, Giuliani 21%
South Carolina: McCain 32%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 13%, Romney 10%

And in graph form...

McCain pulls even in National Polling

Soaring Since California

With the second debate just hours away, let us take a moment to reflect on what has happened since the last debate.

Two weeks ago, John McCain gave an impressive performance in California at the first Republican debate. He declared that he would "follow Osama to the gates of hell" and would veto pork-laden legislation and "make its authors famous". Pundits took notice. The National Review asserted that "McCain has stolen Rudy's fire" and a CEO of Red State, Erick Erickson, would "vote for John McCain, if the primary was today."

But the pundits weren't the only people to take notice. May polls showed an increase in support for McCain among Republicans and a decrease in support for his opponents. Want proof?


A Mason-Dixon poll now has McCain leading Nevada, the state that may go before Super Super Tuesday and after the Big 3. McCain leads with 19%.


In California, a state that has so far been a Giuliani stronghold, McCain has dramatically edged Giuliani's lead down to a mere 3% or a statistical tie.


In a national primary, among Republican primary voters, McCain stays within 4% of Giuliani and both increase their leads over Mitt Romney, who is stuck at single digits. Without Fred Thompson, McCain and Giuliani both garner over 30% of the vote. Most importantly, the ARG poll has McCain reclaiming the support of independent conservatives (support among indep. McCain: 46% Giuliani: 21%).

Another CNN poll, with Fred Thompson, has McCain within 2% of the leader, Giuliani.



And who can forget these numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (click to enlarge):

So what's the point? We may look back to the first debate in California to the time that John McCain first began close in on Giuliani........and with a strong showing tonight, we may be looking back to May 15, 2007 as the date that John McCain "won" the nomination.