McCain continues to lead in IA, NH, and SC

Despite being in the middle of the heated immigration debate (will post on this later this week) that has divided the party, McCain's numbers in the Big 3 remain solid according to the latest ARG poll on May 29. What's even better is that John McCain continues to receive support from independents who are likely Republican primary voters/caucus goers in Iowa (48%), New Hampshire (40%), and South Carolina (41%).

Let's break down the numbers for the top 3 vote-getters in each state (and yes, Fred Thompson is included in each poll).

Iowa: McCain 25%, Giuliani 23%, Romney 16%
New Hampshire: McCain 30%, Romney 23%, Giuliani 21%
South Carolina: McCain 32%, Giuliani 23%, Thompson 13%, Romney 10%

And in graph form...

Maverick Unleashed

Sorry for the lack of postings. We are trying to get into the swing of things for summer. With '08 officially underway, MFM promises more regular postings in June.

In case you missed it, John McCain has come out swinging in the last few weeks at opponents from both sides of the aisle.....

On a blogger conference call last week, McCain blasted Romney for his attacks on the guest worker immigration plan. Agree or disagree on the contentious issue of immigration (I'll post this later), it is important for Republicans to debate issues and policies. Unfortunately, Mitt Romney has no immigration policy so he has resorted to attacks on McCain in order to score political points.

When asked on how he felt about Romney's criticisms towards his guest worker program, McCain told reporters, "In the case of Governor Romney, you know, maybe I should wait a couple of weeks and see if it changes, because it's changed in less than a year from his position before. And maybe his solution will be to get out his small-varmint gun and drive those Guatemalans off his lawn. I don't know," McCain said.

Ouch.

Then, on May 25, McCain chided Senator Clinton and Obama for there "No" votes on the Iraq War funding bill: "This vote may win favor with MoveOn and liberal primary voters, but it's the equivalent of waving a white flag to al Qaeda."

Senator Obama didn't take too kindly to the truth. Obama reiterated his disagreement with Republicans on the Iraq War and supported his claim by mocking McCain's recent trip to Iraq: "And if there ever was a reflection of that it's the fact that Senator McCain required a flack jacket, ten armored Humvees, two Apache attack helicopters, and 100 soldiers with rifles by his side to stroll through a market in Baghdad just a few weeks ago."

So what's a Maverick to do? Reload and fire away..

McCain:
"While Senator Obama's two years in the U.S. Senate certainly entitle him to vote against funding our troops, my service and experience combined with conversations with military leaders on the ground in Iraq lead me to believe that we must give this new strategy a chance to succeed because the consequences of failure would be catastrophic to our nation's security. ""By the way, Senator Obama, it's a 'flak' jacket, not a 'flack' jacket."


Zing! Some may dislike McCain's style and approach but I for one enjoy his candor and no-holds-bar approach. Keep it coming Johnny!

Will the real Romney please stand up?

In 2002, Mitt Romney was not only for campaign finance reform - he was a radical reformist. According to The Hill, in 2002:

“Mr. Romney campaigned in favor of clean elections, which provides public money to candidates for state office who meet strict fundraising requirements,” the Telegram & Gazette reported. “But he suggested an alternative funding method. Instead of providing campaign funds from state coffers, his plan would tap 10 percent of the fundraising of candidates who choose to raise money privately.”

Not radical enough for you? How about banning evil PACS? In 1994, Romney's "advocated on publicly advocated placing spending limits on congressional campaigns and abolishing political action committees (PACs)."

Fast foward to 2007 in South Carolina

Romney attacks McCain-Feingold and campaign finance reform at the debate hoping to score political points. Which led to this exchange:

Soaring Since California

With the second debate just hours away, let us take a moment to reflect on what has happened since the last debate.

Two weeks ago, John McCain gave an impressive performance in California at the first Republican debate. He declared that he would "follow Osama to the gates of hell" and would veto pork-laden legislation and "make its authors famous". Pundits took notice. The National Review asserted that "McCain has stolen Rudy's fire" and a CEO of Red State, Erick Erickson, would "vote for John McCain, if the primary was today."

But the pundits weren't the only people to take notice. May polls showed an increase in support for McCain among Republicans and a decrease in support for his opponents. Want proof?


A Mason-Dixon poll now has McCain leading Nevada, the state that may go before Super Super Tuesday and after the Big 3. McCain leads with 19%.


In California, a state that has so far been a Giuliani stronghold, McCain has dramatically edged Giuliani's lead down to a mere 3% or a statistical tie.


In a national primary, among Republican primary voters, McCain stays within 4% of Giuliani and both increase their leads over Mitt Romney, who is stuck at single digits. Without Fred Thompson, McCain and Giuliani both garner over 30% of the vote. Most importantly, the ARG poll has McCain reclaiming the support of independent conservatives (support among indep. McCain: 46% Giuliani: 21%).

Another CNN poll, with Fred Thompson, has McCain within 2% of the leader, Giuliani.



And who can forget these numbers in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina (click to enlarge):

So what's the point? We may look back to the first debate in California to the time that John McCain first began close in on Giuliani........and with a strong showing tonight, we may be looking back to May 15, 2007 as the date that John McCain "won" the nomination.

Debate Tonight!!

Make sure to watch Senator John McCain defend his title from the first GOP debate this evening at 9pm EST.

Go McCain!

McCain wins GOP Bloggers Poll in Michigan for the 2nd month in a row!!!

For the second month in a row John McCain has show himself to be the candidate to beat in Michigan.

This victory comes on the heels of new poll numbers that show McCain leading the pack in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

Here are the GOP Blogger numbers for Michigan:

McCain 202 (36.1%)
F. Thompson 174 (31.1%)
Romney 45 (8.1%)
Giuliani 43 (7.7%)
Gingrich 35 (6.3%)
(none) 17 (3%)
Hunter 16 (2.9%)
Brownback 11 (2%)
Tancredo 10 (1.8%)
Huckabee 3 (0.5%)
T. Thompson 2 (0.4%)
Pataki 1 (0.2%

McCain ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina

***Poll Update*** McCain leads in three early primary states

HT to Politico.

According to a recent ARG Poll John McCain has surged ahead in New Hampshire and Iowa and remains the front runner in South Carolina.

According to Josh Martin at The Politico -

ARG has new numbers today from the early state troika, Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, showing McCain ahead in all three.

He' s up by 7 percent over Rudy in Iowa, 5 percent over Romney in New Hampshire and 13 percent over Rudy in South Carolina.

Per pollster Dick Bennett, McCain has gained strength among independents and continues to do well among Republicans.

He notes that this could be the beginning of the McCain "re-surge", which is something that I also wrote about a little while back as the "McCain Moment" arriving.

With McCain coming off an impressive run of major policy speeches that set him apart as far as experience among the current crop of GOP hopefuls, and a stellar announcement tour in all of the states included in this poll, it sure seems like the Senator's message is resonating with the voters in South Carolina, Iowa, and New Hampshire.

And Away We Go!!!!!!!!